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Why Is Crypto Crashing?
PLUS: Conviction At Record Highs & Altcoin Rally Ahead?
Why Is Crypto Crashing?
Conviction At Record Highs
Altcoin Rally Ahead?
Massive Supply Shock Coming
And more…
Market Data Prices as of 5:00am ET
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WHY IS CRYPTO CRASHING?
🚨 Crypto Crash Watch: Traders Brace for Powell at Jackson Hole – 8 Reasons Sentiment Is Shaken
Bitcoin (BTC) just cracked below $113K.
Ethereum (ETH) plunged 5.3%, sliding under $4,100.
Altcoins were hammered — ADA -8%, XRP -6%.
Crypto-linked stocks felt the heat too: MARA, COIN, and MSTR all shed 5–7%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 barely moved. Why? Liquidity.
Crypto depends on it. The Federal Reserve controls it. And this week, the spotlight is on two catalysts:
FOMC minutes (Aug 20)
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Aug 22)
Traders fear Powell may delay September’s long-awaited rate cut.
Eight Macro Risks:
Tariffs could drive a delayed inflation spike.
Sticky inflation via the Producer Price Index.
Corporate warnings about price hikes.
Mixed data: weaker jobs vs. strong consumers.
Policy messiness: tariffs, trade, fiscal collisions.
History lessons: Powell remembers 2018–19.
New PMI data could flash tariff pain.
Fed divisions (hawks vs. doves).
Markets still price in an 86.1% chance of a September cut.
Hawkish Powell = tighter liquidity, weaker altcoins.
Dovish Powell = liquidity floodgates, next crypto rally.
History rhymes: Tariff panic in 2019 → breakout in 2020. Pandemic cuts → the biggest bull run ever.
Stay alert. 🚀
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CONVICTION AT RECORD HIGHS
One of the most revealing Bitcoin metrics is the share of coins that haven’t moved in 1+ years.
This simple measure shows whether long-term holders (LTHs) are sitting tight or selling into strength.
Here’s the latest snapshot:
🔴 1+ years: 61.34% (slightly down from 61.40%)
🟠 2+ years: 51.76% (up from 51.01%)
🟢 3+ years: 43.81% (down from 44.00%)
🔵 5+ years: 30.02% (down from 30.05%)
👉 Translation: While most age bands dipped, the 2+ year cohort actually rose. This suggests more conviction among holders from the last cycle, even as older whales took profits near all-time highs.
Zooming out: nearly two-thirds of Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in over a year. That’s not just illiquidity—it’s rocket fuel for future upside. 🚀
MASSIVE SUPPLY SHOCK COMING
The Bitcoin market has shifted dramatically in the past five years, moving from retail-driven enthusiasm to institutional adoption.
Former Goldman Sachs and White House Advisor Anthony Scaramucci points out in a recent update, that at conferences that were once dominated by small investors and blockchain founders, the majority of attendees are now institutional players.
ETFs such as BlackRock’s iBIT are seeing strong inflows, even as some whales sell off holdings, creating a consolidation and change-of-ownership phase.
Despite this, demand continues to outweigh supply, with only 450 new Bitcoins mined per day.
Scaramucci maintains a price target of $180K–$200K by year-end, though some see much higher potential.
Take a look at the video below to find out more..
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ALTCOIN RALLY AHEAD?
Last week, Bitcoin Dominance ($BTC.D) finally broke its 3-year uptrend on the daily timeframe.
And this past Sunday, it also broke on the weekly timeframe 👇
The more confirmations we see across multiple timeframes → the more reliable the breakdown becomes.
This means Bitcoin’s dominance over the broader crypto market is weakening — and could weaken even further in the coming months.
(Translation: altcoins may capture the bulk of upcoming market gains.)
Now, does this mean it’s finally Valhalla for your Dogecoin bag you’ve been clutching since 2021?
Possibly… but don’t expect an overnight moonshot.
A textbook healthy move would look like this:
$BTC.D dips lower →
Retests the old trendline →
Continues breaking down →
Until Bitcoin’s share drops to the ~40–50% range of total market cap.
Confused? Don’t worry.
Here’s the chart with the ideal retest (blue line), the ~40–50% target range (red box), and the previous cycle’s alt season breakdown (green line).
(Source: TradingView)
So, which altcoins will shine brightest in this alt season?
That’s a whole other discussion 👇
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OTHER NEWS
🏛 Amdax unveils AMBTS for EU Bitcoin treasury push. The Dutch crypto group is preparing an Euronext Amsterdam listing and targets eventually holding 1% of all Bitcoin. With strong regulatory backing, AMBTS is designed to attract institutional investors into Bitcoin via public markets.
🗾 American Bitcoin sets sights on Asia expansion. Backed by $200M raised in June and already holding 1,941 BTC, the Trump-linked miner is pursuing acquisitions in Japan and Hong Kong to build a large corporate Bitcoin treasury, mirroring Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation model.
🤝 Tether taps ex-Trump aide Bo Hines. The stablecoin giant has recruited the former White House crypto advisor to lead U.S. operations, signaling a deeper political strategy as regulators increase scrutiny of the stablecoin sector.
📈 KindlyMD scoops up 5,744 BTC in $679M deal. Following its merger with Nakamoto Holdings, the firm now controls nearly 5,765 BTC at an average price of $118K per coin. CEO David Bailey confirmed the company’s goal of one million Bitcoin in long-term reserves.
⚡ SoFi launches Bitcoin Lightning remittances. Partnering with Lightspark and UMA, SoFi introduces faster, low-cost international transfers powered by Bitcoin. The service debuts in Mexico, with full integration into the SoFi app for seamless global money movement.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
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