• Bitcoin Sets Sights On US Election

• Chart Of The Day: Yield Spread

• What To Watch For In Crypto This Month

• And more…

Market Data Prices as of 5:00am ET

This Update is Brought to You By Bitbo

Bitbo launched a FREE live version of the Bitcoin Power Law

BITCOIN SETS SIGHTS ON THE US ELECTION 

BREAKING: US Presidential Election Jitters Hit Bitcoin Price

With the US Presidential election result due today, Bitcoin is on shaky ground.

After nearing a record high, Bitcoin has been in a slight downtrend over the last few days.

Some traders are watching Trump’s odds on Polymarket and noticing a curious correlation with Bitcoin’s performance.

So, why does Bitcoin seem tied to Trump’s chances?

Here’s the reason: Trump has signaled more crypto-friendly policies compared to Harris.

Meanwhile, the Democratic administration and SEC chair Gary Gensler haven’t been exactly friendly to crypto.

Here’s how traders are interpreting the outcome:

• Trump Win: Bitcoin climbs 📈

• Harris Win: Bitcoin stumbles 📉

But remember, Bitcoin has a track record of resilience.

After each US election (see the chart below.), Bitcoin has ultimately surged—no matter who won, from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.

The upcoming US election result could provide an essential boost to the market.

No matter the outcome, Bitcoin and cryptoassets appear primed for strong performance in the months ahead.

Along with that, November has traditionally marked the best performance month for Bitcoin, making it likely that the upward momentum from October will persist.

CHART OF THE DAY: YIELD SPREAD

The yield spread between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury bonds is a valuable measure for understanding shifts in policy interest rates.

The chart illustrates yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill, alongside the spread between the two and the S&P 500 index dating back to 1985.

Recently, the spread has been rapidly de-inverting and is now just 20 basis points from reaching a normalized or even positive level.

Historically, such de-inversions have aligned with downturns in the S&P 500 and often signaled U.S. recessions, represented by vertical shaded areas on the chart.

However, the current de-inversion might be a more positive signal for stocks and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

This optimism is supported by an acceleration in money supply, which often provides a bullish backdrop for scarce digital assets such as bitcoin, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise's head of research for Europe.

Join Swan Bitcoin! And Get $10 of Bitcoin When You Sign Up!

Create an Account Now>>

WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR
IN CRYPTO THIS MONTH

November kicks off with some high-impact events that could shake the markets right out of the gate!

Let’s set the stage by taking a quick look at October's momentum before diving into what November has in store.

1/ October Recap ⏪

October promised a potential “UPtober” rally, and it delivered – albeit with more modest gains than some expected.

In October, crypto saw:

• A +10.76% gain for $BTC and +9.81% for the overall crypto sector

• The US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times the amount of $BTC mined during October, indicating heightened demand and constrained supply

The result? A breakout from the crypto market's 8-month descending channel, suggesting a possible trend reversal.

2/ Macro Events 📊

Looking forward, November’s first week holds two major macro events that could influence the market.

• US Elections (Today): We’ve already covered this, so let’s move on to…

• Rate Cuts (Nov 7): The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. While smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, this move could ease financial pressures, potentially boosting crypto and the broader economy.

If history serves us right, Bitcoin has averaged +42.88% returns in November. Could this lead to a $100k Bitcoin by month’s end? Stay tuned!

3/ Token Unlocks 🔓

October’s token unlocks reached a staggering $5.39B, increasing sell pressure in the market. This month, it’s a calmer $2.62B, which may mean less pressure on crypto prices.

4/ Earnings Season 💰

Notable earnings this week include:

• Franklin Templeton, Arm, Qualcomm, and Sony. But keep a close eye on Nvidia ($NVDA) reporting on Nov 20, a heavyweight in the AI industry!

Stay tuned as November unfolds – we’ll keep you posted on every twist and turn!

Heatbit Trio is the world’s only heater-purifier that mines Bitcoin at 10 TH/s and makes you ≈30,000 SATS / mo

Get 5% Off with Coupon Code »CLOUDAICRYPTO»

FOR THE FERTILE MIND…

You are what you read! Here is what we are reading right now…

The Conservative Case For Bitcoin - Mitchell Askew
Contributions to Philosophy (Of The Event) - Martin Heidegger
Liberty and Property - Ludwig Von Mises
Concept of the Political - Carl Schmitt

OTHER NEWS

• MicroStrategy Plans Massive Bitcoin Accumulation with $42 Billion Funding: MicroStrategy announces its ambitious goal to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy more Bitcoin. This plan includes $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt, which would add significantly to its existing $18 billion Bitcoin reserves.

• Trump Advisor’s Firm Embraces Bitcoin: Vivek Ramaswamy’s $1.7 billion asset management firm integrates Bitcoin, citing a response to global economic trends, signaling increased institutional interest in crypto.

• Italy’s Bitcoin Tax Rate Adjusted to 12.5%: A recent clarification reveals Italy's effective tax rate on Bitcoin earnings was actually 12.5%, not the previously assumed 26%, which could mean refunds for taxpayers who overpaid between 2023 and 2024.

• Bitcoin’s ‘Extreme Greed’ Signal in Fear and Greed Index: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index hits ‘extreme greed’ levels despite a price dip from the $73,000 resistance mark, showing high investor optimism.

• NYSE Mulls Extending Bitcoin ETF Trading Hours: The NYSE considers extending Bitcoin ETF trading to 22 hours daily to meet increasing global demand, pending regulatory approval.

• Emory University Leads with Bitcoin ETF Investment: Emory University becomes the first U.S. university endowment to disclose a significant holding in Bitcoin ETFs, valued at $15.1 million in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust shares.

• Bitcoin Profitability Hits 99.5% Since Inception: According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin’s historical price trends reveal that 99.5% of all days since it began trading have been profitable.

• Coinjoin Sets New Record with 430 Inputs in a Single Transaction: A Coinjoin transaction recently included 430 inputs, breaking the previous record of 400 and raising discussions around enhanced Bitcoin privacy and the potential for even larger transaction blocks.

• Argentina’s Central Bank Hosts Bitcoin Mining Art Exhibition: Argentina’s central bank is hosting a unique art exhibition featuring live Bitcoin mining, blending finance, technology, and culture.

• Arthur Hayes Foresees Chinese Yuan Shifting to Bitcoin Amid Property Crisis: Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argues that the recent influx of printed Chinese Yuan to stabilize the economy may see a portion flow into Bitcoin investments.

• UAE and Switzerland Lead as Bitcoin Tax Havens: A new research report reveals that the UAE and Switzerland are among the top destinations for favorable Bitcoin and cryptocurrency tax policies.

• 404 Media Uncovers Warrantless Smartphone Tracking Tool for Law Enforcement: 404 Media exposes a powerful tool sold to U.S. law enforcement that allows warrantless tracking of individuals through smartphone identifiers.

• VanEck Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $3 Million by 2050: Investment firm VanEck releases a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050, citing its potential to evolve into a reserve asset.

• Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge If GOP Wins Election: Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Bitcoin could hit $125,000 by year-end if Republicans win in the upcoming U.S. elections.

• Florida Considers Bitcoin for Pension Fund Investments: Florida explores adding Bitcoin to its state pension funds as a diversification strategy to protect retirees against traditional market volatility.

• Blink Wallet Enables Direct Payments to South African Retailer Using Bitcoin Lightning Network: Blink Wallet introduces a new feature allowing customers to pay directly via proprietary QR codes, enhancing payment options for South African retail transactions.

• Bitkey Partners with MoonPay for Seamless Bitcoin Transactions: Bitkey and MoonPay collaborate to allow Bitkey app users to buy, sell, and transfer Bitcoin seamlessly.

• Satoshi Nakamoto Reveal in London Falls Flat Amid Skepticism: A highly anticipated Satoshi Nakamoto reveal event in London fails to convince attendees, with fraud allegations casting further doubt on the claim.

MEMES OF THE WEEK

RECOMMENDATIONS

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.